The dissertation provides a thorough comprehensive theoretical generalization and offer a new solution to the scientific and practical task of developing the financial security system of holding-type agricultural enterprises in Ukraine under the influence of multi-vector internal and external threats of a long-term and cumulative nature. It is proven that the modern functioning of holding-type agricultural enterprises takes place in an environment of increased uncertainty, caused by macroeconomic instability, military challenges, climate change, high volatility of prices for agricultural products and resources, as well as deep transformations of global agricultural and financial markets.
The definition of the essence of the financial security system of holding-type agricultural enterprises as a complex of interconnected elements that creates the basis for the formation of their financial stability and competitiveness in the conditions of internal and external threats has been improved. It has been proven that the financial security of holding-type agricultural enterprises is a fundamental factor in ensuring the competitiveness of the agricultural sector, the food security of the state and the stability of rural economic territories, and due to the financial instability of enterprises, it is transformed into production, social and fiscal risks at the national social level.
It is substantiated that the evolution of the financial security system of holding-type agricultural enterprises in Ukraine occurs under the influence of a combination of structural transformations of the national economy, changes in the institutional environment, liberalization of financial and commodity markets, as well as extreme shocks of a military and climatic nature. The dissertation systematizes the indicated internal and external threats to the financial security of holding-type agricultural enterprises. The dissertation also performs their classification – military, digital, environmental, macroeconomic and global competitive risks are distinguished. As a result of the study, it was found that holding-type agricultural enterprises in Ukraine are most vulnerable to the consequences of the impact of these threats, and it was also established that the impact of these factors contributes to the formation of the effect of cumulative instability in the financial processes of enterprises.
The dissertation offers a methodological approach to assessing the level of financial security of holding-type agricultural enterprises by determining an integral indicator of financial security, based on six components: liquidity, financial stability, profitability, credit debt, depreciation of fixed assets and asset turnover, taking into account their rationing, which will allow for a comprehensive analysis and increase their financial stability.
A descriptive model for ensuring the financial security system of holding-type agricultural enterprises has been developed, aimed at increasing the level of their financial stability and security.
The financial security management system of holding-type agricultural enterprises and a comprehensive approach to its provision have been substantiated, which is based on a combination of risk monitoring, digitalization of financial processes, early diagnosis of threats and mechanisms of state support, which allowed to increase the level of financial security of holding-type agricultural enterprises. The decisive role of digital technologies, in particular ERP systems, big data analytics and cloud services, in increasing the transparency of financial flows, reducing operating costs and increasing the efficiency and validity of management decisions has been proven. This approach allows to significantly reduce the probability of crisis situations.
The dissertation study made a forecast of credit and insurance coverage of holding-type agricultural enterprises to increase their financial stability and minimize financial risks using linear and multifactor regression modeling methods. Forecast calculations allowed us to determine alternative scenarios for the development of the financial stability of the agricultural sector, assess the potential consequences of increasing or mitigating macroeconomic and military risks, and identify critical points of financial risk, which is the basis for forming strategic management decisions at the micro and macro levels. The feasibility of developing agricultural insurance as one of the effective ways to minimize losses arising from the influence of climatic and military factors was established, and the need for state support was also established.
An integrated strategy for the development of holding-type agricultural enterprises has been further developed, taking into account economic, technological, social and environmental aspects, which has allowed to increase competitiveness and strengthen the level of their financial security.
